Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.103993 2.555846 3.065937 3.682055 4.403561 5.219119 6.208031
2025-04-20 1.530261 2.116974 2.854287 3.838824 5.107587 6.675043 8.743716
2025-04-27 1.163958 1.801601 2.679320 3.952684 5.725156 8.073327 11.380992
2025-05-04 0.943004 1.609724 2.602107 4.145634 6.434635 9.642651 14.400818
2025-05-11 0.737085 1.380942 2.412173 4.122103 6.806945 10.762345 16.899892
2025-05-18 0.561507 1.152430 2.168336 3.958243 6.922384 11.494113 18.884348
2025-05-25 0.425862 0.956070 1.932437 3.755120 6.928126 12.033972 20.602275
2025-06-01 0.347417 0.845858 1.821757 3.738446 7.222395 13.035367 23.103833
2025-06-08 0.290245 0.763262 1.744216 3.763416 7.581251 14.162975 25.890142
2025-06-15 0.240583 0.683242 1.654806 3.748043 7.858549 15.168468 28.545259
2025-06-22 0.186729 0.577426 1.489758 3.554390 7.775283 15.531137 30.124917
2025-06-29 0.155541 0.518964 1.415223 3.531952 8.011526 16.474843 32.778519
2025-07-06 0.128155 0.463242 1.337911 3.496215 8.226886 17.418250 35.545104
2025-07-13 0.117243 0.451965 1.365972 3.700235 8.957903 19.395800 40.354411
2025-07-20 0.104191 0.429970 1.362565 3.830676 9.547570 21.149421 44.873775
2025-07-27 0.095311 0.418729 1.385148 4.026026 10.297613 23.275365 50.242952
2025-08-03 0.080106 0.380065 1.324310 4.005811 10.565842 24.456584 53.871851
2025-08-10 0.063524 0.329232 1.216485 3.846948 10.497258 24.939823 56.161161
2025-08-17 0.049241 0.280479 1.102074 3.649159 10.309826 25.152242 57.914860
2025-08-24 0.041478 0.255718 1.056941 3.633013 10.555638 26.303407 61.647471
2025-08-31 0.035673 0.237146 1.027792 3.657409 10.903727 27.702306 65.980678
2025-09-07 0.030115 0.216865 0.987597 3.642430 11.149402 28.891021 69.945452
2025-09-14 0.023180 0.184869 0.895793 3.453568 10.919280 28.983899 71.575202